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Dear Ted, thanks for offering your services in '84, but. . . .

A longtime political observer and friend of the Kennedys says it's highly unlikely Sen. Edward M. Kennedy could wage a successful campaign for the presidency in 1984, despite his current lead in public opinion polls. This source - who shuns being identified because ''I have to live with these guys'' - says Chappaquiddick and other factors have effectively knocked the Massachusetts senator out of the running. Is there anything that could put him back in? Perhaps complete economic collapse and social upheaval would knit together a new Kennedy coalition, this source says.

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Barring this, look for Democrats to turn to a Mondale, Glenn, or a new face the next time around, the source says.

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