On recovery, optimism, employment, interest
We think President Reagan's free-enterprise stance will be vindicated and the economy will turn up, if only because the stock market has never risen this sharply without the economy's having followed suit shortly thereafter. Indeed, the degree of corporate-insider selling has contracted in recent weeks, and even the fourth largest bank failure in history did not stop the Dow Jones industrial average from moving up that same day. Bank failures are yesterday's news and were discounted in the 1982 bear market. -The Dines Letter, Belvedere, Calif.m
The financial community appears so enamored by the prospects of this recovery that it has tendered its fear of any unfavorable current events for a stake in the future of renewed corporate vitality. News items, such as the OPEC saga, are being dissected by investors to determine how much beneficial influence they may bring to bear on the economic rebound. Little emphasis is being placed on harmful or negative fundamental factors at present, since these items are expected to be smothered by a tidal wave of ongoing economic good tidings. Certainly, this bright investor psychology will one day shift. However, that inevitable moment of transformation seems well into the future. -Wedbush, Noble, Cooke Inc., Los Angelesm
Aside from the arcane mysteries of the various ''M's,'' the continued high real interest rates also suggest that the Fed has eased only slightly, if it has done so at all. A truly expansive monetary policy would undoubtedly create lower real interest rates than currently exist. For the last few months, with federal funds rates at about 8 1/2 percent and consumer price inflation running at about 4 percent for the prior year, real interest rates have equalled about 4 to 5 percent. Even discounting some of the special influences holding down inflation, real short-term rates remain at around 3 percent. This compares with real interest rates of between zero and minus-5 percent at comparable troughs in past economic cycles. -MH/Edie Economics, New Yorkm
Recently, as inflation expectations have declined, demand for gold has subsided. Speculators have been particularly hard hit because many of them purchased gold on margin. As the selling wave has accelerated, the gold market margin calls have, in many cases, forced liquidation of gold positions, adding to selling pressure. A further factor depressing the price of gold is the expectation that two of the larger producers - the USSR and South Africa - will be selling large amounts of gold again this year in order to replenish hard-currency stocks. Arab oil exporters, too, may sell some of their gold stocks to raise dollars for their development projects. -Manufacturers Hanover Trust, New Yorkm
