Soaring costs of reunification and the strains of absorbing asylum-seekers are weakening the two major political blocs that have led the German government since World War II
THE deep disappointment Germans are registering with the way Helmut Kohl's government has handled the challenges of reunification and the sensitive issue of asylum may alter the traditional coalition mathematics of the Bundestag - and Germany's political future.
Moreover, political scientists are finding troubling indications of a trend away from political engagement: Voter turnout, though still high, is falling, and party membership and other forms of participation are regarded less favorably.
"There's a great risk of fragmentation," says Jochen Thies, a political analyst and the managing editor of Europa Archiv. "There is danger in the asylum issue, that if it is not more or less settled, the fragmentation will go on."
"The basis of the political stability of the Federal Republic [of Germany] is its economic strength," says political scientist Dieter Roth. With Germany in a slowdown, if not a full recession, the strains of absorbing the expected 400,000 asylum applicants this year are apparent.
Germans are signaling unhappiness, not only with Chancellor Kohl's conservative coalition, reelected less than two years ago, but also with the opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD).
Some observers say politicians are focusing too much on the Maastrict Treaty on European economic and political union while displaying reluctance to condemn violence for fear of alienating far-right voters.
To speak of a "drift to the right" in Germany is, for historical reasons, to sound an alarm. But elections are won "to the right of the center," says Finance Minister Theo Waigel, chairman of the rightist Christian Social Union (CSU).