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A Troubled Russia Faces Four Months on Hold

Yeltsin's health makes decisive steps unlikely

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The plans for Boris Yeltsin's heart operation now put him out of active duty for a total of roughly four months. Few doubt that his formal powers and administrative duties will be competently managed in that period by Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin and presidential chief of staff Anatoly Chubais.

With public sympathy apparently swinging in President Yeltsin's favor, and with medical opinion giving him a very good prospect of full recovery, the nationalist-communist opposition is dropping any attempt to pressure him into stepping down.

But without the active political presence of Mr. Yeltsin, analysts see a Russian government with a weak base for taking any strong action in the economically critical coming months.

"Much depends on the president's health here," says national security chief Alexander Lebed. "Strong will has disappeared in the country" without an active Yeltsin to push for the solution of pressing problems.

Since Mr. Chubais can only act in Yeltsin's name, and any controversial moves would be challenged, politically difficult steps such as closing down bankrupt state enterprises and other tough restructuring steps will become even harder, notes one Western diplomat.

"It will be a brake on reform and what they can do," the diplomat says.

Yeltsin's hand may be missed in inside politics, as well. The jostling for position within the Kremlin, the seat of the presidential administration, and the White House, where the prime minister and cabinet are headquartered, is a hard-elbows, high-stakes struggle between personalities and interest groups where only Yeltsin has played referee.

Political wild card

The most unpredictable element is Mr. Lebed. He is a plainly ambitious, fast-moving politician whose popularity has risen quickly. He created a political party a few weeks ago. Already candidates have appeared in nearly every gubernatorial race around the country this fall claiming to be associated with Lebed, according to Sergei Kolmakov, a political analyst and former adviser to the Yeltsin campaign.


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