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Tax Cutting Will Come In Small Packages in '97

More states eye reductions, but the proposals are modest

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Less than three weeks into their new legislative sessions, state governments from Boston to Sacramento are awash in proposals to cut levies ranging from property taxes to penalties on married couples.

But think of them more as potential coupons than big cash bonuses.

In the five years since the last recession, many states have built up strong surpluses. Amid sustained economic growth, some have collected more revenues than their constitutions allow and must now offer rebates. But instead of large-scale tax cuts like those in New York and New Jersey in recent years, most of the 29 states now debating reductions are thinking small. Gas-tax cuts in Connecticut, sales-tax rebates in Arkansas.

The primary reason is Washington. As Congress and President Clinton strive to balance the budget and reform entitlement programs, states face a heavier social burden with less federal support. Yet opinion polls still rank taxes as a top concern.

State officials thus appear eager to offer some tax relief, but also hope to maintain strong rainy-day funds to protect against future recession and higher costs to programs like welfare.

"The states are conservative about what they'll give because of federal devolution and the possibility of an economic downturn," says Liz Davis, a tax-policy analyst at the Center for the Study of the States in Albany, N.Y. "There is so much antitax sentiment that states are wary of putting themselves in the position of having to raise taxes again."

Wallet relief from Washington?

The extra $28 you'd receive in New Mexico under Gov. Gary Johnson's proposed $15 million state income-tax cut, however, isn't everything. After two years of bitter confrontation and government shutdowns, Washington also is poised to pass tax relief as part of a deal to balance the federal budget. Senators from both parties have offered tax cuts. So has President Clinton. The overlap - and the will - are significant.


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