Senators will consider new judicial nominees Thursday. GOP-appointed judges already control 10 of 13 appeals courts.
As Democrats and Republicans in Washington prepare for an expected showdown over the use of filibusters to stall judicial nominees, President Bush is already well on his way to recasting the nation's federal appeals courts in a more conservative mold.
Republican appointees now constitute a majority of judges on 10 of the nation's 13 federal appeals courts. As few as three more lifetime appointments on key courts would tip the balance in favor of GOP appointees on all but one appeals court - the Ninth US Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco.
The confrontation over judges heats up Thursday with the Senate Judiciary Committee expected to send a second appeals court candidate to the full Senate for a possible vote. The process is being closely watched because if either nomination triggers a filibuster, it could provide the vehicle for Republican senators to launch the so-called nuclear option, which would squelch filibusters.
It will be up to Senate majority leader Bill Frist to decide when to schedule a floor vote on Thomas Griffith, nominated to the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. William Myers, a nominee to the Ninth Circuit, is also pending a floor vote.
Even if Republicans refrain from a nuclear option in these proceedings, legal analysts say the Bush administration is already accomplishing a significant shift within the federal judiciary. By winning a second term, he is well positioned to leave a presidential legacy that could take Democrats a decade or more to reverse.
The lineup of appeals court judges based on which president appointed them is a somewhat crude measure of the shifting ideological influences within federal courts. Not every Republican appointee votes conservative. Nor are Democratic appointees automatically liberal. But judicial scholars say that on certain divisive issues, the appointing president can be a reliable indicator of the likely outcome of a case.
This explains why Democratic senators are prepared to fight so hard to block key judicial nominees, and why Mr. Bush and his allies in the Senate are prepared to fight equally hard for their confirmation.
"Many studies have shown that there are significant differences between Republican and Democratic appointees on many kinds of issues," says Arthur Hellman of the University of Pittsburgh School of Law.