Fiscal restraints and newly elected moderates make radical changes in environmental policy unlikely, activists predict.
After years in the political wilderness, activists and their champions in Congress are poised to take environmental policy and lawmaking in a decidedly greener direction.
Climate change and renewable energy, land conservation, endangered species protection, pollution prevention – all will get a fresh look as Democrats take over key committees and subcommittees in the US House and Senate.
At the same time, activists don't expect the new Congress to make radical changes.
"We have cause for good cheer and optimism," says Betsy Loyless, senior vice president of the National Audubon Society. "But even with significant congressional changes, there will likely be limits to what's achievable."
Among other things, she says, Congress faces tight fiscal constraints, industry interests continue to hold sway with the Bush administration, most incoming Democrats are moderate rather than liberal, and pro-environment interests will have fewer middle-of-the-road GOP allies (such as defeated Sen. Lincoln Chaffee of Rhode Island) on Capitol Hill.
Still, expect a weakened effort to drill for oil and gas in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska and in the Rocky Mountain states, less of a push for expansive offshore oil drilling, and more resources to bolster the Endangered Species Act and clean up toxic sites on the Superfund list.
Among important related issues will be the five-year farm bill, set to expire next year, and crop subsidies connected to ethanol production.
As with other major environmental and energy issues, the ethanol issue presents activists with a political dilemma. Using more ethanol can help reduce reliance on foreign oil, but it can also mean more use of fertilizers and pesticides and less interest in the federal program to set aside agricultural land in conservation reserves to protect wetlands and wildlife habitat.
"The whole [farm bill] debate will be over how much money goes to conservation," predicts Ken Cook, president of the Environmental Working Group.