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What Iran vote says about Ahmadinejad's support

The president's supporters hailed Friday's high turnout as a sign of satisfaction; reformers pointed to discontent.

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Even as votes are still being counted from Iran's twin elections last Friday, politicians of all stripes are declaring victory for their own factions.

Conservative groups are hailing the large turnout – near 60 percent in elections for local councils and the powerful Assembly of Experts – as a public show of support for Iran's Islamic system and continued right-wing rule.

On the other side of Iran's broad political spectrum, reform-leaning politicians appeared to have broken the four-year grip by conservatives on the Tehran City Council by winning a handful of seats there and on a string of local councils across Iran.

Analysts say the inroads may prove the start of a comeback for reformists, who have been shut out of all power centers in Iran since the June 2005 election of arch-conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The biggest surprise – and perhaps the most important omen for future changes – is the support for Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president who was dealt a humiliating defeat by Mr. Ahmadinejad in last year's presidential runoff.

With more than three-quarters of the ballots counted Sunday night, Mr. Rafsanjani was leading the race in Tehran for the Assembly of Experts, which supervises and can replace Iran's supreme religious leader. He took almost twice the number of votes as the ayatollah seen as Ahmadinejad's spiritual mentor, who trailed in seventh.

"This will certainly be evident in the next [parliament] elections, [where] the majority will be reformists," says Mehdi Karroubi, the reform-leaning former parliament speaker. "The number of [reformist seats] depends on how the government handles themselves," says Mr. Karroubi, a presidential candidate who narrowly missed the runoff vote in 2005. "The sound you hear is a return to the reformist camp."

Conservatives disagree

But conservatives caution that it is far too soon to make predictions in a no-holds-barred political system that in the past decade has watched the reformist star rise spectacularly on a wave of popular desire for change – demonstrated during two landslide victories for former President Mohammad Khatami – and then fall when outmaneuvered by the right wing.


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