'Two Inflationary Days': A clarification

Karlsson responds to readers' comments on his translation of monthly changes to annualized rates in his previous post on inflation.

|
Jon Garcia/The Saginaw News/AP/File
Children at Woodcrest Elementary watch a hot air balloon demonstration in Midland, Mich., in this September 2012 file photo. Karlsson writes that including both monthly changes and annual rates gives a better understanding of recent changes.

I have received a somewhat unexpected criticism regarding my previous post. It's not about any of the statistical facts in it, nor about the point that U.S. inflation is increasing and will likely continue to increase, but about the fact that I, in addition to stating the monthly changes in consumer- and producer prices, also "translated" those monthly changes in to annualized rates. The critics argued that such translation meant that I thought that this would be the yearly change during the coming year, something they argued was implausible, a forecast that I basically agree with as, while it is likely that inflation will increase sharply, it is unlikely to increase that much.

But that was not at all what I meant. The reason why I also stated it in annualized terms was that some people mainly or only think in terms of annual or annualized change, so that any change less than 2% is low inflation. By only stating it in terms of the actual change, such readers would get the wrong impression, so by stating both, you create a greater understanding of recent changes. Stating it in terms of the 12 month change would also create a misleading impression since it would include the relatively low inflation months of late last year and early this year.

Now,since I myself don't think that way, I would have otherwise prefered not to make that addition. But if I had simply disregarded the objective of making as many as possible understand and simply expressed it in the way I myself like best, I wouldn't have written any of this in English in the first place, då skulle jag ha skrivit det på svenska.

But since, unfortunately, few people outside of Sweden and certain parts of Finland (plus perhaps Norway and Denmark due to the similarity of their languages to Swedish) understand Swedish, I still write here in English (däremot kan det för svenskspråkiga läsare som eventuellt missat det påpekas att jag på detta ställe bloggar på svenska). Similarly, since some people think in annualized I also express it that way to make them understand, even though I don't think that way.

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.
Real news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.
What is the Monitor difference? Tackling the tough headlines – with humanity. Listening to sources – with respect. Seeing the story that others are missing by reporting what so often gets overlooked: the values that connect us. That’s Monitor reporting – news that changes how you see the world.

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

QR Code to 'Two Inflationary Days': A clarification
Read this article in
https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Stefan-Karlsson/2012/0917/Two-Inflationary-Days-A-clarification
QR Code to Subscription page
Start your subscription today
https://www.csmonitor.com/subscribe