Iran has denied any involvement. Though the plot in Thailand appears utterly amateurish, and there are questions as to why Iran might choose India – one of the most important importers of its oil – to attack the Israeli diplomats, the denial might be self-serving. Israel does have a well-developed military relationship with Georgia, as it does with India, and has tried to use Georgia, Azerbaijan, and the Kurdish region of Iraq to spy on Iran, and presumably exploit their territory for its covert war against Iran.
Iran’s presumed involvement is meant as an explicit warning not just to Israel, but also to the US, of what is in store if the covert war against the Islamic republic continues or if Israel attacks it militarily.
We are entering a dangerous new stage of the confrontation in which Iran feels it must respond in kind to attacks against it. When two nations begin to engage in such patterns of attacks and counterattacks, it becomes much easier for a mistake or misjudgment to lead to a disaster.
All it would take is an attempt to blow up an Israeli embassy or the killing of an official to provoke a full-scale regional war. This is precisely what happened in 1982, when terrorists attempted to assassinate Israel’s ambassador to London. Israel’s defense minister at the time, Ariel Sharon, used the attempt as a pretext to invade Lebanon.