Why Lebanon hasn't slipped into civil war
Rival factions have worked hard to defuse points of conflict.
Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, was killed by a huge explosion near downtown Beirut in February 2005. Since then, the country has seen – in addition to the Israeli bombardments of summer 2006 – more than a dozen other mysterious assassinations. Nearly all those killed were, like Mr. Hariri, outspoken critics of the strong role that Syria plays inside Lebanon.
Ever since 2005, analysts have speculated that Lebanon might be headed back into the civil war from which it extricated itself, with much difficulty in 1989.
But this has not happened. Why?
My main point of comparison is April 1975. I had been in Lebanon for just a few months by then, at the beginning of my journalism career. That month, Falangist Party militiamen in a Beirut suburb caught a bus full of "hated" Palestinians in an ambush and shot 27 men dead. The whole country was a tinderbox, home to six or seven armed factions: some Palestinian, some Lebanese.
The April ambush proved to be the "trigger" that tipped Lebanon into all-out civil war. During the years that followed, it was my sad task to report on the many grisly turns the war took. I investigated massacres. I dodged bullets, mortars, and artillery. I interviewed political leaders from all sides, the survivors of atrocities, and families trying to survive in basement shelters. I saw the country fall apart.