Many Americans believe that once Mr. Bush is gone, allies will step forward and share the burdens of leadership. Many allies believe that once Bush is gone, Washington will start listening to them more.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, allies' fears of an existential threat have declined, along with their willingness to share risks and costs with their American partner.
Washington remains the only capital able to run a global foreign policy and to project military power anywhere on earth. But America's recent sorrows, including the wrong-headed misadventure in Iraq and the financial crisis, only make it harder for it to demand loyalty and sacrifice from others.
This is particularly so in Asia, where the rise of China is transforming the diplomatic geometry of the region. Old US allies and friends such as South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, and Indonesia are shifting to accommodate Beijing, leading to the formation of new strategic triangles.
There is a way out of the next president's ally problem, however – for both sides.