A military surge won't defeat the Taliban. A jobs surge could.
President Obama is leading two surges this year. One is for Afghanistan, where US troops are trying to secure the war-torn country. The other, in the form of business tax credits and government spending, is for the beleaguered US economy.
What do Afghanistan and the US economy have in common? Both need job creation to succeed.
While Democrats and Republicans debate the best ways to create job opportunities in the United States, the debate over how to stabilize Afghanistan has focused on military and security issues, to the neglect of economic ones.
Military operations unaccompanied by the reintegration of former insurgents and other armed groups have failed in the past – in Afghanistan and elsewhere. A shift in US strategy to focus on job creation and effective reintegration could keep Afghanistan from sliding into what it was before 9/11: an Al Qaeda sanctuary.
Despite its potentially large human and financial cost – estimated at about $30 billion – a surge on its own is not going to improve the region's security. In fact, it may well fuel further extremism.
Get the Taliban to quit
The best chance for US forces to start coming back home in the summer of 2011 as planned is if they can persuade a significant number of Taliban and other armed militants to abandon the insurgency.
Doing so requires a two-pronged strategy.