6 factors that will determine concessions from Iran

The question du jour and probably du year is whether war with Iran can be avoided. This lies in Iran’s hands. In recent talks with the West in Baghdad, Iran showed some greater flexibility about its nuclear program. But Iran has a history of trickery in the nuclear arena.

Whether Tehran will more seriously cooperate with Western demands depends largely on the following six factors – several of which may be difficult for the West to influence.

1. Get greater global unity on US-led sanctions

Hadi Mizban/AP
Iran's Chief Nuclear Negotiator Saeed Jalili, right, chats with EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton in Baghdad May 23. Negotiators from the US and five other world powers tried to work through the impasse over Tehran's nuclear program. Op-ed contributor Steve Yetiv says: Whether Iran will more seriously cooperate with Western demands depends largely on six key factors.

Much greater global unity is needed to back US-led sanctions and give them the teeth they need to really compel Iran to drop its nuclear aspirations. At present, their impact on Iran’s calculations is unclear.

True, sanctions have gained greater support. European Union countries have agreed to halt oil imports from Iran by July 1. And Japan, South Korea, and Turkey may reduce their imports from Iran as well. However, China and India currently consume around 35 percent of Iran’s oil and appear reluctant to cut back. They may even buy more as other countries buy less and as they get better oil deals from Iran, which would undermine US-led sanctions to some degree.

Iran also consumes about 400,000 barrels per day of gasoline, and imports about 120,000 barrels per day. The imports come from many places, but China is an especially critical source. In January 2012, Washington sanctioned China’s state-run Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp., which it said was Iran’s largest gasoline supplier.

Sanctions may have put some pressure on Iran to come to the negotiating table, but much greater unity – especially from China and India – will be needed to help close the deal. Such changes are possible from most countries, but China and India will prove a huge challenge.

1 of 6

Dear Reader,

About a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”:

“Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight. My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.”

If you were to come up with a punchline to a joke about the Monitor, that would probably be it. We’re seen as being global, fair, insightful, and perhaps a bit too earnest. We’re the bran muffin of journalism.

But you know what? We change lives. And I’m going to argue that we change lives precisely because we force open that too-small box that most human beings think they live in.

The Monitor is a peculiar little publication that’s hard for the world to figure out. We’re run by a church, but we’re not only for church members and we’re not about converting people. We’re known as being fair even as the world becomes as polarized as at any time since the newspaper’s founding in 1908.

We have a mission beyond circulation, we want to bridge divides. We’re about kicking down the door of thought everywhere and saying, “You are bigger and more capable than you realize. And we can prove it.”

If you’re looking for bran muffin journalism, you can subscribe to the Monitor for $15. You’ll get the Monitor Weekly magazine, the Monitor Daily email, and unlimited access to CSMonitor.com.

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.