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Oil, gas, and the investment sinkhole problem

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Ed Andrieski/AP/File

(Read caption) An oil pump jack is shown across from a subdivision near Frederick, Colo. In some real sense, because of the sinkhole investment phenomenon, we are getting less and less back for every dollar invested, Tverberg writes.

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We are used to expecting that more investment will yield more output, but in the real world, things don’t always work out that way.

In Figure 1, we see that for several groupings, the increase (or decrease) in oil consumption tends to correlate with the increase (or decrease) in GDP. The usual pattern is that GDP growth is a little greater than oil consumption growth. This happens because of changes of various sorts: (a) Increasing substitution of other energy sources for oil, (b) Increased efficiency in using oil, and (c) A changing GDP mix away from producing goods, and toward producing services, leading to a proportionately lower need for oil and other energy products.

The situation is strikingly different for Saudi Arabia, however. A huge increase in oil consumption (Figure 1), and in fact in total energy consumption (Figure 2, below), does not seem to result in a corresponding rise in GDP.


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