How climate influences weather: six questions

From extreme rains in some places to early spring in others, weather events prompt questions about what role climate change may be playing.

3. How do scientists do this math?

Andres Leighton/AP/File
Wind caused by the approaching Hurricane Earl kicks up waves and blows palm trees in San Juan, Puerto Rico, August 2010.

When scientists try to single out the role likely played by human-caused climate change, they rely on complex models, together with a track record of historical observations, that can account for all the meteorological factors contributing to a weather event. Essentially, they use these models to compare an actual event with a simulated one that assumes preindustrial carbon dioxide levels, which generally means slightly cooler air and sea surface temperatures.

Any weather event is affected by a multitude of factors, including atmospheric conditions, the presence of El Niño or La Niña, sun spots and volcanic events, air masses and wind patterns – which models try to account for.

David Titley, who chaired the US National Academies committee that produced “Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change” a year ago, says good attribution science is a “three-legged stool.” To do it well, scientists need to have a solid understanding of the fundamental physics that caused a weather event and how it’s been affected by climate change; long-term observations that support that understanding; and a computer model that can predict the type of event in the future with some sort of reliability.

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