Cutting oil imports by one-third by 2025 might be less ambitious than it sounds. A better goal, some experts say, might be to more strongly encourage alternative fuels to make oil less important overall.
Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP
Amid a spike in gasoline prices and a bout of concern over the safety of nuclear power, President Obama called Wednesday for America to "finally get serious" about energy policy, and he laid out a specific new target: to cut oil imports by one-third by 2025.
The president's goal drew applause from an audience at Georgetown University.
But it also prompts some obvious questions: How hard will it be for America to reach that goal? Is it the right goal to reach for?
On the first question, Mr. Obama's objective will require some effort to reach, but it's not as ambitious as it might sound at first. In his speech, Obama set the baseline at 2008, when America was importing 11 million barrels of oil per day. Imports are lower today, and the US Energy Information Administration currently predicts that imports will be around 9.4 million b.p.d in 2025.
The agency's forecast involves a lot of guesswork, but if it's correct then America would get about halfway toward Obama's goal without any new shift in policy or consumer behavior.
On the second question, many energy experts like the idea of America becoming less reliant on imported oil. But they also note that the price of oil, even oil produced domestically, depends on what happens in a global marketplace where other nations are selling and buying barrels – and where events in places like Libya or the Persian Gulf can have a big impact.