From there, however, the prospects for the package to pass the Senate – much less the House – get more nuanced.
Measures to ban assault weapons or high-capacity magazines are almost certain to fail, while measures to stiffen penalties for straw purchases and gun trafficking and to increase school safety are likely to pass the Senate.
The outstanding question is whether the Senate can rally around universal background checks. Currently, the votes don't appear to be there, but Sen. Joe Manchin (D) of West Virginia and Sen. Pat Toomey (R) of Pennsylvania are negotiating a potential compromise amendment that could get bipartisan support.
In the meantime, the threat by Senator Paul and colleagues to block the progress of the bill is driving Senator Manchin batty.