A weekend poll by CNN/Opinion Research Corporation shows Republicans with an even greater advantage in congressional races than they had back in 1994, when Newt Gingrich led his party to victory – leading 10 percent in a generic ballot (52-42 percent) compared with 7 percent in ’94.
Even more dispiriting for Democrats: Fifty-five percent of independents say they'll vote for a Republican, with just 32 percent saying they'll go for the Democrat in their congressional district. That’s in line with the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, which also shows independents – who accounted for a major portion of Obama’s winning majority in 2008 – trending Republican.
“One nonpartisan prognosticator, Stuart Rothenberg, said Friday he thought the Republicans could pick up as many as 70 House seats – something no party has achieved since 1948” when Truman was president, the Wall Street Journal reported Saturday. That’s far more than the 39 new seats the GOP needs to take control of the House.
One Republican campaign tactic has been to make the election all about Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senate majority leader Harry Reid. (So far, the GOP is not referring to them as the “Axis of Evil,” but they might as well, given the harshness of the campaign rhetoric.) The ploy seems to be working.