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Why Newt Gingrich is likely to win Iowa

Newt Gingrich doesn't have a big campaign staff or lots of money. But Newt Gingrich has got several things going for him in Iowa, notes DCDecoder.

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Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich at Nationwide Insurance, Dec. 1, 2011, in Des Moines, Iowa.

AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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There are plenty of reasons to discount the Newt Gingrich surge as the latest flash-in-the-pan phase of the GOP nomination contest.

He’s got a bare-bones political staff. There’s no indication he’s doing more than a serviceable job raising money. There’s all of his political and personal baggage, from two divorces to his recently-disavowed global warming ad with “Princess” (Herman Cain’s words, not Decoder’s) Nancy Pelosi.

But let's look at why Newt isn't likely to implode. 

As Matthew Dowd writes in today’s National Journal, the widely held belief that it’s important to have massive campaign staff in Iowa simply isn’t true (see “Pawlenty, Tim”).

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