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Obama, Romney surrogates insist their guy will win. Both can't be right.

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"They understand that they're in deep trouble," Mr. Axelrod said. "They understand that the traditional, or the battleground, states that we've been focusing are not working out for them. Now they're looking for somewhere, desperately looking for somewhere." 

In the all-important battleground state of Ohio, the Real Clear Politics polling average shows Mr. Obama ahead by nearly three percentage points.

But US Sen. Rob Portman (R) of Ohio, a prominent Romney campaign surrogate, told CNN’s Candy Crowley he’s confident that the GOP candidate has a good chance of taking the state.

"All the polls are going in the right direction, so I'm very happy about the polling," he said. "I feel very good about Ohio.” Still, he acknowledged, he “wouldn’t want to risk” trying to win without Ohio – something no Republican presidential candidate has ever done.

Last-minute polls show a race that could hardly be closer.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of likely voters published Sunday finds Obama leading Romney by a nose – 48 percent to 47 percent. 

Another new poll – Politico/George Washington University’s battleground tracking poll of 1,000 likely voters – shows the two tied at 48 percent.

The Real Clear Politics national polling average has Obama ahead by a tiny fraction: 2/10ths of 1 percent.

As Politico’s James Hohmann points out, “History shows that most of the 3 percent of remaining undecided voters probably won’t go to the polls on Tuesday, so the winner will be determined by which candidate can turn out more of their supporters in the 10 or so competitive states.”

That’s exactly the aim of the two candidates as they make their last dash toward Election Day.

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