Election Day: Does Obama have the edge? (+video)
The final polls show President Obama with a slight lead. But Republicans show greater enthusiasm for turning out. So the race this Election Day is far from over.
It’s Election Day, and the final polls are in. If the outcome were to be decided by the popular vote, it would be too close to call. The Real Clear Politics average of the latest national polls shows President Obama ahead by just 0.7 percentage points. That’s way within the margin of error.
But the winner will be determined by the Electoral College, not the popular vote. And by that score Mr. Obama seems to have a slight edge over Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
If each tossup state is assigned to the candidate toward whom it is leaning, according to the averages of each state’s recent polls, then Obama could win the Electoral College handily. The Real Clear Politics map with no tossup states gives Obama 303 electoral votes versus 235 for Mr. Romney. To win, a candidate needs 270 votes.
But that Real Clear “no tossup map” gives a lot of credence to those state polls, and when averaged, they’re all close. (That’s why they’re battleground states!) If the turnout assumptions in those polls end up underestimating the motivation level of Romney voters then they could be wrong.
Conservative political analyst Michael Barone says the fundamentals work in Romney’s favor. Most voters oppose Obama’s major policies and are unhappy with the sluggish economic recovery, he writes in the Washington Examiner. National and “target state” polls show independents breaking for Romney, he adds.
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