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How is the tea party doing in Senate races?

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Using a complicated online formula, prognosticators at the Daily Beast’s “Election Oracle” give Angle a 60 percent chance of winning. More on this methodology here.

But allegations of early voting fraud and voter intimidation in Nevada may be setting the scene for a legal battle after next Tuesday. Lawyers from both parties are getting ready for a fight that could delay election results. Did someone say “hanging chads?”

Joe Miller in Alaska

Joe Miller’s main threat comes not from Democratic candidate Scott McAdams but from incumbent Republican and write-in candidate Sen. Lisa Murkowski. And from his self-made image problems, like finally admitting under court order this week that he “lied about what I was doing” (as he wrote in a 2008 e-mail) in inappropriately using government computers when he worked as a part-time lawyer in the Fairbanks North Star Borough.

CNN finds Mr. Miller and Senator Murkowski essentially tied among likely voters with Democrat Mr. McAdams lagging behind. But a new poll of 500 likely voters paid for by a labor union and released Thursday has Miller running third at 23 percent with 29 percent for McAdams and 34 percent for "write in candidate" – presumably Murkowski.

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