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Can the tea party survive success?

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Rebecca Cook / Reuters / File

(Read caption) Gary (r.) and Samuel, last names withheld, wear 'Stop Obama, Stop Socialism' tea bag hats they are selling at the Tea Party Political Fair in Charlotte, Mich., July 2010. Populist uprisings are common in American history, but most were folded into the major parties or else faded into obscurity. What will be the tea party's fate?

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Flush with electoral success and a new Gallup poll that shows 7 in 10 Americans want Republicans to heed its small-government ideas, the tea party movement is on a roll toward its ultimate prize: determining the 2012 presidential election and becoming, in Sarah Palin's words, "the future of politics in America."

But the tea party phenomenon teeters at a critical point in its rags-to-riches two-year history. In fact, the future of the tea party could largely be determined in the next few months as its willingness – or not – to compromise on key issues comes into sharp focus.

"The big question is whether the tea party is politically savvy enough and realistic enough to realize that democracy works through incrementalism, or are we going to see this passion that says, 'If you compromise, you're done,' which is basically forming a circular firing squad," says Robert Watson, a political scientist at Lynn University, in Boca Raton, Fla.

American history shows that populist political insurgencies can burn out as fast as they flare up, either absorbed into a major party or shunted to the ineffectual fringes of the American mainstream.

The 19th century's anti-immigration Know-Nothing movement dissipated after striking deals with Democrats and losing the 1896 presidential election. At the other end of the spectrum, the 1960s John Birch movement, which also began as a right-wing Republican reaction to a Democratic president, remains a constituency for some Republicans today.

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