Iran continues to amass more and more low-enriched uranium. So the context in which an Iran nuclear fuel swap would take place is very different today than it was only a few months ago.
Iran on Monday surprised much of the world by agreeing to a nuclear fuel swap with Turkey and Brazil. The deal is similar to one that the US has been pressing Tehran to accept for months – so Washington will be happy with this development, right?
That’s unlikely. From the US point of view, one big problem is that Iran continues to amass more and more low-enriched uranium, and it has begun boosting some of this stockpile to an enrichment level it hasn’t approached before. Thus, an Iran nuclear fuel swap today might constrain the country's nuclear program much less than it would have last October.
“There is less to Iran’s agreement than meets the eye,” writes Jeffrey Lewis, director of the Nuclear Strategy & Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation, on his blog ArmsControlWonk.com.