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Will Sarah Palin be the October surprise?

One national poll shows Sarah Palin surging ahead of Rick Perry in a head to head matchup against Barack Obama. Will Sarah Palin announce her candidacy in time for the Florida primary deadline?

Former vice presidential candidate and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin addresses a Tea Partly Express Rally in Manchester, N.H., in early September.

Stephan Savoia/aP

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It’s been a good few weeks for Sarah Palin.

First, Joe McGinniss’s tell-all book about her was slammed by the mainstream media (those coming to Palin’s defense included the New York Times and even liberal antagonist Keith Olbermann).

Now, a new national poll shows her trailing President Obama in a head-to-head matchup by just 5 points, 44 to 49 - this, after she had trailed him by more than 20 points for most of the year. That’s better than current GOP frontrunner Rick Perry, who trails the president 41 to 50 in the same poll.

According to the survey, Palin’s recent jump in support has come mostly from independents, who have lately been abandoning the president in droves. Still, she remains a controversial figure: 72 percent of Republicans and independents in the same survey also said they don’t actually think Palin should run.

And that remains the question: will she or won’t she? Palin recently told Fox News that she thinks there’s “still time” for candidates to get into the race, and that she’s “still considering” it. She repeatedly said she believed it would be an “unconventional” election year.

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