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Obama leads Romney by 13 points in new poll. Can that be right?

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Carolyn Kaster/AP

(Read caption) This combination of 2012 and 2011 file photos shows Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at the University of Chicago on March 19, left, and President Barack Obama in Osawatomie, Kan. on Dec. 6, 2011.

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Wow. A new poll out Wednesday shows President Obama with a big lead over presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney. The Bloomberg survey has Mr. Obama in front by 13 points among likely voters, 53 percent to 40 percent. Can that possibly be true?

Well, it could be right. Anything can happen in politics. But the preponderance of evidence indicates that this poll is an outlier – a statistical glitch. The latest RealClearPolitics rolling average of major polls has Obama up by a much narrower 2.3-point margin. And that average includes the Bloomberg results.

Similarly, Gallup’s daily tracking poll has Mr. Romney up by one point Wednesday morning. Some polling experts suggest that Gallup’s results have leaned Republican this cycle. But even if that’s true, it is unlikely it would account for the big difference with Bloomberg.

“This poll is a clear outlier,” tweeted Ezra Klein, Washington Post Wonkblog policy expert, on Wednesday morning.


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