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Watch Virginia and Indiana says political analyst

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What to watch for this evening? It could come down to just two states.

The polling site FiveThirtyEight.com has the lowdown on what to watch out for at 7 p.m. (Eastern Time) tonight.

Virginia and Indiana

Is it a safe bet to call it that early? Nate Silver, the baseball statistician turned all-star political analyst, says yes. The key is Virginia and Indiana.

Says Silver, "If those states go roughly as expected (meaning, say, an Obama win in Virginia and a close race in Indiana), we can conclude with almost literal 100 percent certainty that Obama will win the election."

More wonks

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