Ron Paul poll shocker: He beats Obama head-to-head(Read article summary)
At the moment, Ron Paul bests President Obama in a head-to-head matchup by 43 to 41 percent, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released Tuesday.
How about this for a poll shocker: While everybody in US politics has been preoccupied with the Michigan primary, Ron Paul has sneaked up on President Obama and for the first time leads the incumbent in a head-to-head survey.
Thatâ€™s right, leads â€“ as in, ahead of, out front, winning, and so forth. According to a Rasmussen Reports poll released Tuesday, at the moment Representative Paul bests Mr. Obama in a head-to-head matchup by 43 to 41 percent.
Wow. Paul is outperforming all the other GOP candidates, by this measure. His campaign is spinning this as evidence heâ€™s the most electable of all.
â€śIn order to win back the White House, Republicans must nominate a consistent candidate that offers something besides the status quo. Ron Paul is that candidate,â€ť said national campaign chairman Jesse Benton in a statement on the Rasmussen results.
Well, we hate to be the bearer of cold water, but weâ€™ve got a couple of comments to make on this.
First, one poll does not a white-haired Texas libertarian president make. As we said, this is the only head-to-head matchup to this point that shows Paul beating Obama. The RealClearPolitics rolling average of such polls still has Paul behind by a little over seven points.
Plus itâ€™s, you know, hypothetical. Paul is not actually running against Obama at the moment. And the polls that have to do with him getting to that point arenâ€™t so positive at the moment.
In the RealClearPolitics poll average of the four GOP contenders, Paul remains in fourth, as the choice of 12 percent of Republican voters. Heâ€™s not outperforming that figure in any big March 6 Super Tuesday states, either. In Ohio, heâ€™s at 10.7 percent. In Georgia, heâ€™s at 8.8 percent. Heâ€™s doing a bit better in Tennessee, at 15 percent in a recent Vanderbilt University poll, but thatâ€™s still good for only third place.
Of course, there is always the chance that Paul can take a few delegates in Tuesdayâ€™s Michigan primary. State rules allocate two delegates to the winner of each congressional district, and itâ€™s possible that Paul could win in districts that include the University of Michigan and Michigan State. (Heâ€™s big with young people, in case you didnâ€™t know.)
And the Washington caucuses are March 3. Theyâ€™ll be another test of Paulâ€™s strategy of focusing his energy, money, and organization on caucus states.