For the next decade, whites and blacks will remain the two largest racial groups, but by 2024, 1 in 3 voters will be nonwhite, according to the AP analysis, released Monday.
During the 2012 campaign, politicos and pundits argued about whether the minority vote was the key to winning the election. Of all eligible voters in the US, 71 percent are white, 12 percent are black, 11 percent are Hispanic, 4 percent are Asian, and 2 percent other. But the number of minority voters matters less than their turnout rate, Dr. Frey told the Monitor in September.
“It depends on what degree minority voters’ enthusiasm and turnout balances the white voters’ enthusiasm and turnout,” Frey said.
Overall voter turnout declined from 62 percent in 2008 to 58 percent in 2012. White voters cast 72 percent of the total votes in 2012, down from 74 percent in 2004. That lower turnout rate accounted for 2 million to 5 million fewer white voters at the polls in 2012.