"MDC repeatedly makes the mistake of assuming that their inability to mount sufficient internal pressure will be compensated by external pressure" by groups like SADC, says Mr. Friedman. "The reality is that they're not going to get a decisive push for democracy in Zimbabwe unless there is more coordinated internal pressure inside Zimbabwe."
He adds that the first priority of SADC leaders is to "show solidarity with leaders of other governments."
SADC's decline – and potential revival
Formed specifically so that African leaders could find African solutions for African problems – including solidarity against the racist apartheid government of South Africa – SADC has grown into a kind of Davos summit for the unambitious. Human rights advocates say that by refusing to take hard stands, SADC is missing out on a crucial part of its founding ideals of creating greater social and political justice. But some observers say that SADC is slowly changing, as more and more popularly elected leaders are rubbing shoulders with liberation leaders who gained power through the gun.
"We've seen a subtle shift where people reach positions in government because they were put there, through elections, by a rebellion against the government," says Friedman, noting that long-serving "struggle" leaders like Zimbabwe's Mugabe (29 years) and Angola's Eduardo dos Santos (31 years) are no longer the norm in Southern Africa. "These things don't happen quickly, but there is a relative shift."