And he has broken out decisively, according to internal polls seen by the Monitor but not allowed to be published. Fernando Tuesta, head of the polling institute at Peru’s Catholic University, says Humala “will make it to a second round unless something catastrophic happens.”
Most private polls now project him winning about 30 percent of the vote, a 10-point lead over the second place candidate, but still very far from the overall majority needed to win outright and avoid a runoff scheduled for June 5.
Other candidates in the race are warning of dire consequences if Humala were to govern Peru and they all want to be the one to stop him. Mr. Toledo, 64, who only one month ago appeared on track to coast to victory and is now battling for his political life, has started running ads calling Humala a danger and saying Peru would stumble backwards at a rapid pace if he were to win.
Mr. Kuczynski is in the same boat as Toledo, but he has been trending upward and could break out if voters such as Peña make the last minute decision to vote for the 72-year-old economist and concert flautist. He has been taken to task for only renouncing his US citizenship in late March, when it looked like he had a fighting chance for an upset, but on Saturday he got a boost with an endorsement from the ruling APRA party.
Kuczynski, who was one of Toledo’s finance ministers, says a Humala victory “would be nefarious for Peru. He could waste 10 years of growth and set the country back decades.”