2. Libya: What is going to happen in Libya is even more of a mystery than what comes next for Egypt. Beyond its Oil Ministry, the country had few functioning institutions under Muammar Qaddafi. Since his defeat and murder at the hands of angry revolutionaries this fall, Libya's array of militias, tribal notables and politicians have struggled to arrive at a consensus on how to transition to accountable institutions. Over a dozen regionally-based militias who fought against Qaddafi remain armed and outside any kind of central government control. In late 2011 there were a handful of brief skirmishes between armed groups who fought against Qaddafi for control of government installations (like the Tripoli airport) and the risk of open warfare remains. The good news for Libya is its vast oil wealth, particularly relative to the size of the population. But elections are as yet unscheduled and dealing with decades of grievances, as well as the question of how much former Qaddafi loyalists will be allowed to participate in public life going forward, remain explosive issues that will have to be addressed in 2012.
