A negotiated solution to Syria? Unlikely.
(Read article summary)Syria's war is going to end with a defeat for Bashar al-Assad or the uprising, but not because of events at the UN or Arab League.
Reports that as many as 10 members of the 15-member UN Security Council support a proposal to ask Syria's Bashar al-Assad to step down to end the war in his homeland sparked a flurry of optimistic speculation in the press this morning.
The speculation missed two things:
A. UN requests for world leaders to step down are usually about as effective as Jon Huntsman's campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.
B. Russia has repeatedly vowed to veto any Security Council action, no matter how toothless. Mr. Assad has repeatedly insisted he isn't going anywhere and his bloody, extended crackdown against his opponents across the country is evidence of his determination.
What the UN drama really boils down to is an awareness by France, the US, and other concerned countries that they're not going to act unilaterally and that there's little likelihood of collective action. The NATO intervention in Libya, backed by the UN and the Arab League, amounted to a perfect case for a limited intervention.
