Analysts say the government-sponsored talks aren’t getting to these root causes of the uprising, and they see little sign the government is willing to implement real political reform that would address those issues. Without change, protesters and the political opposition are unlikely to give up their fight, which means no solution for unrest is in sight for the tiny US ally that hosts the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet.
“I think the national dialogue is designed to fail to solve the real serious political issues and it's designed to shore up the regime's position,” says Toby Jones, a historian of the Gulf at Rutgers University. With the talks, as well as a commission appointed by King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa to investigate the crackdown, “there's an underlying case being made by the government that the crisis started in February,” he says, instead of acknowledging the long-running problems that led to the uprising.
Coming on the heels of a visit by Bahrain’s crown prince to the US and Europe, both moves also appear meant to placate international allies like the US, which has pressured Bahrain to find a political, rather than a security, solution to the crisis.
To the opposition, the biggest problem with the talks is their structure. Out of 320 participants, just 25 are members of the political opposition, according to Marzooq. That includes four Al Wefaq members – a fifth who would have participated is currently detained on charges of passing false information to the media.