The fast-emerging split between Turkey and Iran has revived a centuries-old rivalry between the Ottomans and the Persians.
Once friends, Turkey and Iran are finding that their reactions to the Arab Spring revolutions are driving them apart and renewing an old regional rivalry.
One sign of the deepening divide was obvious from the attendee list for an international conference on Afghanistan security that opened today in Istanbul.
Every primary player is here: 14 regional nations, with the presidents of Afghanistan and Pakistan in attendance, as well as more than a dozen other countries, including the United States. But Iran had planned to send just its low-ranking deputy foreign minister, despite its long border with Afghanistan and claims of being a regional superpower.
While Iran relented at the last minute and sent Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi, the diplomatic tension indicates how the people-power uprisings have helped transform the Turkey-Iran friendship into an escalating rivalry.
So far, analysts say, Turkey appears the winner in pushing for secular, democratic outcomes in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and especially Syria – even if more by default than by design. And Iran, offering little more than nondemocratic Islamic rule and anti-Western vitriol, at this point appears the loser.
The result is a rekindling of a centuries-old rivalry for influence between the Persians and the Ottomans, with an outcome that "will affect the security architecture of the Middle East for years to come," according to Gonul Tol and Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute in Washington in a recent analysis.
Iran has claimed, with scant evidence, that the Arab Spring changes are an "Islamic Awakening" modeled after Iran's own 1979 Islamic Revolution. Popular protests against the regime of Iran's close ally Syria are an exception, argues Tehran.
Those views – and Iran's brutal 2009 crackdown against its own pro-democracy protests – have undermined Iran's appeal across the Arab world, even as Turkey has gained more traction as a model that blends secular, democratic rule with an Islamist bent.
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