Wall Street Scene (1)
!Ay! Costa Rica: Bananas? Si! Coffee? Si! Robert Vesco? Si! The Aden sisters? Who? Si, the Aden sisters: Mary Anne Aden-Harter and Pamela Aden-Ayales.
Well, maybe the Aden sisters haven't put Costa Rica on the map yet. But, if their gold price forecasts come true, Costa Rica, will become an El Dorado for gold bugs.
Mary Anne was in New York recently meeting reporters as part of a selective media blitz to promote the sisters' newsletter. (Aden Sisters, 4425 West Napolean Ave., Metairie, La. 70001; Cost: $195 per year.)
According to Ms. Aden, gold is now embarked on a 3 1/2 year bull market which should ultimately propel the price to $4,000 per troy ounce. Hello, Costa Rica, are you still there? Si!.
Gold has already started tracking up, she notes, and should not fall much further than its current $400 per troy ounce price. The old low $296 per troy ounce should hold. This is the first leg up in a bull market and as such will be slow but steady, she maintains. With gold currently backing and filling at about find major support before rising further.
What could cause gold to rise 344 percent above its old high of $850 per troy ounce? Ms. Aden says she looks at gold using 20 different measures. She dosen't consider her work totally ''technical'' in nature, but says she and her sister take fundamental factors and plot them out on graphs, looking back in history for similiar patterns.
The major factors they use are inflation and government deficits. For example , she believes the huge US government deficit will cause major inflationary problems in the future. Other similiar deficits in the past, she maintains, have caused calamitous inflation. They have traced inflation back to historical times , and have found other inflationary binges have occurred during the reign of Henry VIII and during the French revolution when the price of gold ran up sharply. The rest of their analysis is technical in nature, using moving averages and momentum indicators. They correlate these indicators with their other findings and make projections.
Both sisters claim to have honed their gold predicting skills while working for a wealthy investor in Costa Rica who preferred to stay out of the limelight. (It was not Robert Vesco, says Ms. Aden.)
Lest anyone think the Aden sisters are unafraid to sell gold, they projected in January of 1980 that gold would fall from the then $700 per ounce (it had already peaked at $850) to $300 over a two year period. They did not recommend investors hold the precious metal during this free fall.
The sisters bullishness on the metal is not universal. Maurits Edersheim, deputy chairman of Drexel Burnham Lambert, said in an interview he doesn't consider gold a good investment at this time since ''there is no shortage of it and you get no income from it. It's a very expensive hobby.'' Unless there is a political crisis, he concludes, ''there will be no run on gold.'' And Andre Sharon, Director of International Research, for Drexel said he felt gold was still in a bear market trend, ''with spasmodic spikes upward." Caramba!