Menu
Share
Share this story
Close X
 
Switch to Desktop Site

Oops! Senate Republicans’ big budget mistake

(Read article summary)
View video

J. Scott Applewhite / AP / File

(Read caption) Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, far left, joins the call of other assembled GOP senators for an amendment to the Constitution requiring a balanced federal budget, at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, March 31, 2011. Senate Republicans introduced a balanced budget amendment last week, but it contains an egregious error, writes guest blogger Donald Marron.

View photo

Senate Republicans made a striking error in the balanced budget amendment they introduced last week. As written, the amendment would limit federal spending far more than those senators realize or, I suspect, desire.

The Republicans want the budget to be balanced by keeping spending down rather than by raising tax revenues. They thus propose limiting spending to no more than 18% of gross domestic product (GDP). That’s in line with average tax revenues over the past four decades, but well below average spending, which has been just short of 21% of GDP.

About these ads

So what’s the problem? The way the amendment would implement the spending limit:

Total outlays for any fiscal year shall not exceed 18 percent of the gross domestic product of the United States for the calendar year ending before the beginning of such fiscal year, unless two-thirds of the duly chosen and sworn Members of each House of Congress shall provide by law for a specific amount in excess of such 18 percent by a roll call vote.

The amendment compares spending in one period (the upcoming fiscal year) to the size of the economy in an earlier period (the last complete calendar year). If the amendment were in force today, for example, spending in fiscal 2012, which starts in October, would be limited to 18 percent of GDP in calendar 2010. That’s a gap of 21 months.

As Bruce Bartlett pointed out in analyzing an earlier version of this amendment, that time lag can add up to big money. Why? Because both real economic growth and inflation will expand the economy during those 21 months.

The Congressional Budget Office projects, for example, that nominal GDP will grow about 4.5% annually in the latter part of this decade (the earliest the amendment could go into effect). Over 21 months, that works out to roughly 8% growth. The amendment would thus limit federal spending in those years to about 16.7% of each year’s GDP (16.7% = 18% / 1.08) not the advertised 18%. In 2020 alone that amounts to a difference of more than $300 billion in spending.

That’s a big error.

I doubt that Senate Republicans really want to limit spending to only 18% of GDP. Even the House Republican budget calls for spending of more than 20% of GDP for at least two decades. But if the Senate Republicans are serious, their first step should be to fix the drafting error in their amendment.

Add/view comments on this post.

About these ads

--------------------------

The Christian Science Monitor has assembled a diverse group of the best economy-related bloggers out there. Our guest bloggers are not employed or directed by the Monitor and the views expressed are the bloggers' own, as is responsibility for the content of their blogs. To contact us about a blogger, click here. To add or view a comment on a guest blog, please go to the blogger's own site by clicking on the link above.