Democrats will lose because their policies have failed(Read article summary)
Despite the surge in federal spending, real per capita disposable income has fallen. No wonder the Republicans stand to win big.
J. Scott Applewhite / AP
Tomorrow is election day in America. I obviously don't know what the exact outcome will be, but just about all polls shows that the Republicans will win a majority in the House of Representatives, and maybe also the Senate. The pick-up in seats is likely to match or exceed those in 1994.
There are many reasons for this likely Republican surge, including the fact that a new President's party usually loses seats in mid term election and the fact that Obama has pursued such a radical agenda, presiding over an unprecendted surge in federal spending, something which has created a counter-reaction in the form of the so-called Tea Party movement.
But the most important factor is that Obama's policies have been a big failure. This was confirmed in today's personal income report.
In the second quarter of 2009, the first when Obama started to implement his policies and also the quarter when the recession supposedly ended, real (2005 dollars) disposable income was $10,193 billion (all of the numbers mentioned here are annualized). In the third quarter of this year, real disposable income had risen to only $10,237 billion. And if you factor in the increase in population, real per capita disposable income dropped from $33,191 to $32,976, a 0.7% decrease. If you look at September number alone, real per capita income was even lower $32,916.
Note also that the numbers would have been even worse if you exclude transfer payments. Excluding that, real income is lower even before adjusting for population, and after adjusting for population, it is lower by 1.5%.
Most Americans have thus seen their real incomes continue to drop even after the recession supposedly ended and after Obama's policies have been given a long time to "work its magic". The policies of Obama and the Congressional Democrats have thus been a big failure, and for that the Congressional Democrats will now receive a well-deserved punishment (it is however more dubious whether the Republicans deserve to win). Obama can be grateful that only Congress is up for election this time and that he has got two more years before he has to face an election.
The Christian Science Monitor has assembled a diverse group of the best economy-related bloggers out there. Our guest bloggers are not employed or directed by the Monitor and the views expressed are the bloggers' own, as is responsibility for the content of their blogs. To contact us about a blogger, click here. This post originally ran on stefanmikarlsson.blogspot.com.