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UNITED STATESThe US economy should begin to recover by the second quarter of 1992 unless consumers lose more confidence in their future incomes, according to Gail Fosler, chief economist for the Conference Board, and Saul Hymans, an economist at the University of Michigan.... Federal regulators have begun to hold back in seizing troubled US banks because of a depletion of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. FDIC chairman William Taylor told the New York Times yesterday that the premiums that banks pay to the f und are likely to rise sharply next year.... The Bush administration is considering a more aggressive campaign to force the overthrow of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, the Washington Post reported yesterday. The US officials quoted in the report said proposals included giving Iraqi rebels military training and spare parts, or helping to protect a provisional, alternative government. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY In Vienna, ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meet today to set their production strategy for early next year. Industry analysts say OPEC will probably hold current oil output levels into the first quarter of 1992.... In Tehran, developing countries sent a defiant message to the US and Western Europe over international trade negotiations. The so-called Group of 77, which includes some of the world's poorest nations, warned the industrialized world that it should not t ry to strike a deal on the current round of GATT talks behind the backs of developing coutries.... China said it was trimming prohibitive tariffs on 225 imports, mostly industrial and agricultural items, in a move motivated as much by acute industrial needs at home as by intense foreign criticism of import barriers.

HAITI Ousted Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide and the country's parliamentary leaders failed to agree on a solution to Haiti's political crisis after three days of talks. It was the first meeting between Aristide and his critics since he was ousted in a Sept. 30 military coup months after he became Haiti's first democratically elected president. The legislators rejected Aristide's demand that he be returned to power and disagreed with the ousted president on when an Organization of American States emba rgo against Haiti should be lifted.

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EUROPE Shelling hit Osijek in eastern Croatia yesterday but most of the rebel republic's war zones were calm in the early hours of the 14th cease-fire in the Yugoslav conflict. France said the United Nations should send a peacekeeping force to Yugoslavia as soon as possible.... Belgian voters turned their backs on traditional parties in elections, handing a huge protest vote to an extremist anti-immigration party and to environmentalists.

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