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Have we survived the Facebook lockup expiration?

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Paul Sakuma/AP

(Read caption) Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg at the Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, in this July 2012 file photo. The Reformed Broker says while Zuckerberg has taken a beating in the media the past few weeks, signs point to a possible Facebook resurgence. He may have reason to smile yet.

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Today's big story is John Corzine's new hedge fund the Facebook lockup expiration.  In case you're living in a cave or you were Amish up until last night, Facebook currently has 420 million shares and as many as 271 million more just became eligible to hit the open market.

We've been told for months that this would be D-Day (doomsday) but like most things, when everyone thinks something, it rarely ends up being the case.  Don't get me wrong, my view on the stock hasn't changed, but let's be honest and admit that it's a very positive sign that the stock was able to get back above 20.  As of this mid-afternoon writing, it seems like it might even stick.

I explained just after the IPO opened and then went down like a Clinton intern that I'd rather pay up for Facebook once momentum returned than try to catch a bottom.  It seems counterintuitive to not want a "cheap" price, but when you can't value things fundamentally, like untested businesses, the supply / demand picture and momentum are the only tools you have.

So Mark Zuckerber, if you're reading this, Smile!  It gets better.


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