The Atlantic hurricane season may be quieter this year than last, predict AccuWeather.com forecasters. A 'near normal' 2012 would see at least a dozen tropical storms and two major hurricanes.
In a year of wild weather so far, hardly anyone would use the word “normal” in predicting what to expect in the future – except for long-range forecasters talking about the coming hurricane season.
On Thursday, AccuWeather.com predicted a “near normal” season of hurricanes. To the weather forecasters in State College, Pa., this means 12 named tropical storms, five named hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. If this forecast materializes, it would be a marked improvement over last year, when there were 19 named tropical storms, seven hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, including Irene, which caused $18.7 billion in damage along the East Coast.
“Even though we are forecasting a normal hurricane season, it only takes one hurricane to ruin your day,” says Dan Kottlowski, senior meteorologist and lead hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather.
Forecasters say making predictions far in advance of the storms allows communities to begin planning, and reminds people that they need to have an evacuation plan in place, even in noncoastal areas like Vermont, which got hammered by floods after remnants of Irene dumped vast amounts of rain on the state. Additionally, forecasters say, the public has a lot of curiosity about the coming hurricane season, and, over the years, long-term forecasts – created from statistical models – have become increasingly accurate.