The weather is wild. One meteorologist on why, and what we can do.
Hazardous weather has battered much of the United States this past week, from tornadoes in Florida to floods in Maine and record-setting freezes in Montana. It left many Americans wondering: What, exactly, is going on?
Jeff Masters, the meteorologist who co-founded the online weather forecasting service Weather Underground – and who used to chase hurricanes for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – provided insights in a Q&A with the Monitor.
Why We Wrote This
The extreme weather that’s recently pounded much of the United States will likely occur more often. But there are ways to become more adaptable, according to a climate expert.
He said some of the weather is just, well, winter. But there’s also a lot that has been unusual. More heat in the atmosphere results in “more energy to evaporate more water from the oceans and create heavier rains,” Dr. Masters says. Some of that is ascribed to climate change.
Dr. Masters also explains the “active debate” in the climate science community over how much climate change is affecting extreme winter weather outbreaks, noting how challenging it is to determine what percentage of last week’s storms was due to climate change.
For individuals wondering how to respond, he offers recommendations on adapting to the 21st century climate:
“There are a lot of smart things you can do,” he says, such as flood-proofing your home or creating defensible spaces around houses in wildfire zones.
From tornadoes in Florida to floods in Maine, record-setting freezes in Montana to blizzards in Buffalo, extreme weather has battered much of the United States this past week. It left us, along with many Americans, wondering: What, exactly, is going on?
To get some answers, we called up Jeff Masters, the meteorologist who co-founded the online weather forecasting service Weather Underground – and who used to chase hurricanes for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
He told us that some of the winter weather is just, well, winter. But there’s also a lot that has been unusual, like those tornadoes. Indeed, meteorologists are expecting the unexpected these days, he says, and are feeling increasing pressure to predict, explain, and protect their followers from the weather.
Why We Wrote This
The extreme weather that’s recently pounded much of the United States will likely occur more often. But there are ways to become more adaptable, according to a climate expert.
“The role of meteorologists has become more important because the climate is changing in unprecedented ways,” Dr. Masters says. “And we really need to understand what’s going on.”
Here’s what else he told us, with edits for length and clarity.
Is it us, or has the weather just been crazy this week?
You had a lot of hazards going on all at once. I mean, you had freshwater flooding due to heavy rain. You had coastal flooding due to these storms. And, of course, inland you had heavy snow. Buffalo got, I think, 40 inches of snow. And then down South you had tornadoes and severe storms, a lot of power outages, strong winds. So, we had the full gamut of extreme weather over the past week. And cold, too. I mean, it’s pretty darn cold here in Michigan where I am.
How much of this extreme weather is because of climate change?
There’s more heat in the atmosphere. And more heat means energy. So that means the energy to evaporate more water from the oceans and create heavier rains. We can ascribe some of the extra precipitation we’ve been seeing from these storms to climate change. The other way that climate change can influence extreme weather is through changes in circulation patterns. The jet stream, for instance, is not behaving like it used to; it’s not going straight west to east like it normally does. It’s been contorting into these unusually strong ridges and troughs, which tend to amplify extreme weather events.
Does that mean that last week’s snow storms, with their record low pressure systems, were caused by climate change?
It’s really impossible to say what percentage of that was due to climate change. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a study you could do showing that there was a significant influence. But you really would have to do the work. It could also be that most, or all, of the extremity that we saw with the jet stream over the past week was natural variability.
One of the more active debates in the climate science community is just how much climate change is affecting extreme winter weather outbreaks. And that is definitely not decided at this point. We have a lot more confidence about how climate change is affecting things like summertime drought, heat waves, heavy precipitation events.
Do you think the wild weather is going to continue?
It’s gonna be a bonkers year. This summer, in particular. We’ve got a record amount of heat in the oceans right now. That means this coming summer should be a record warm summer, globally. And when you’ve got record heat in the atmosphere, that means a lot of energy to power extreme weather events. So, we’re going to see record heat waves, we’re going to see record droughts and record rainfall events because you can evaporate more moisture into a warm atmosphere. And I’m really concerned about the Atlantic hurricane season, too. If you look at the region of the tropical Atlantic where hurricanes form, right now it is the same temperature as we typically see in late July. So that’s pretty insane that in January, we’ve got July-like ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.
So what does this mean for us as a society?
Until we go to zero emissions and the planet stops heating up, the weather is going to get more extreme. We’ve really got to up our game as far as responding to this new climate we’ve created. Our infrastructure in the U.S. was built for the climate of the 20th century. And the climate of the 21st century is a completely different thing. If you’ve got a city where the levees are built to withstand a one-in-100-year flood, what happens if that flood occurs every 20 years? We’ve exceeded the capability of our 20th century climate infrastructure.
You’ve written about this and have suggested large-scale changes we need to make, such as no longer building in areas prone to floods or wildfires. But what can everyday people do today to adapt to this 21st century climate?
If you go to the Federal Emergency Management Agency website, they’ve got recommendations on how to flood-proof your home. It makes sense to spend some dollars to make sure your home is flood-proof. You should also understand what your flood risk is. One tool I would recommend is a website called floodfactor.com. It basically gives you a 1-to-10 rating of what your risk is from weather hazards. There’s a flood rating, a wind rating, a wildfire rating, and a heat rating. It would be smart to do some flood-proofing if you do live in a flood zone. Consider buying more flood insurance if you are in a flood zone. If you’re living in a wildfire zone, there’s a lot you can do to make your home more resistant to fires, like creating a defensible space around it so you don’t have a pile of wood next to your house or a wooden deck or eaves where embers can get under. There are a lot of smart things you can do.
