Scientists have only a fledging ability now, but a new approach to prediction could eventually allow forecasters to identify portions of states facing high risk for tornadoes in an upcoming month.
Bernard Troncale/The Birmingham News/AP
Scientists have developed a fledgling ability to predict monthly tornado activity in the US up to one month in advance.
The technique, which uses existing weather-forecasting tools, is not yet ready for prime time. But in initial tests, the approach showed "statistically significant skill" in predicting regional tornado activity during most months of the year, including the peak of the spring tornado season, the researchers say.
If the approach can be honed sufficiently, eventually it could allow forecasters to identify portions of states facing the highest risk for tornadoes in an upcoming month.
In addition, the technique could help scientists explore a potential direct relationship between global warming and tornado activity. So far, such efforts have focused largely on the relationship between global warming and conditions that can spawn severe thunderstorms, which may or may not trigger tornadoes.
Though the results so far are modest, "this is exciting, because it's a hard problem," says Michael Tippett, a researcher with Columbia University's International Research Institute for Climate and Society, who lead the team.
One potential audience for such forecasts would be federal and state emergency managers, Dr. Brooks suggests.
"If you were able to say: 'The second half of April is going to be really, really bad,' " it could provide extra lead time to marshal emergency supplies or ratchet up efforts to ensure more people know how to respond to tornado watches and warnings when they are issued, he explains.