Given the likelihood of a strong military retaliation – from not only the US, but European countries – Iran is unlikely to actually follow through on its threats. As the Monitor notes, its military spending is a fraction of US and European spending, and blocking the waterway would bring substantial force down on Iran.
The Iranian navy is “no match” for the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain and counting 20-plus ships, combat aircraft, and more than 15,000 American troops, Reuters reports.
Although the waterway is narrow, tankers still have a substantial amount of navigable water outside the four-mile channel, and would surely scatter their routes if it became necessary, Foreign Policy points out. Commercial shippers would adapt, as they did during World War I and the 1980s, when both Iran and Iraq were targeting tankers.
Additionally, the Strait is too broad for a mine field – Iran’s arsenal is too limited for the mines to be planted with a high enough density to affect massive tankers.
