Still, Israel’s accusations are based on a series of foiled or bungled bomb and assassination plots over the past two years that have spanned the globe, from India to Turkey, Azerbaijan, Thailand, Georgia, Kenya, and Cyprus. Some of the perpetrators of the planned attacks have been linked to Iran and to Hezbollah.
If Hezbollah were involved in any of these attempted attacks, it almost certainly had nothing to do with avenging Mughniyah, but was connected to the covert war presently being waged by Iran and Israel. Several Iranian scientists involved with Iran’s nuclear program have been murdered in the past two years and computers at Iranian nuclear facilities have been struck by highly sophisticated viruses. Iran has accused Israel of the assassinations and cyber attacks, raising the possibility that it is seeking to effect a form of deterrence through limited attacks of its own against vulnerable Israeli targets.
From Hezbollah’s perspective, avenging Mughniyah requires selecting a target with reciprocal value, such as a high-profile political or military figure in Israel. However, one reason for the lack of retaliation 4-1/2 years after Mughniyah’s death is the possibility that it could spark a fresh, and in all likelihood, highly destructive war between Hezbollah and Israel, an outcome that neither seems to desire at the present time.