Big bounce in interest rates: why no one should hit the panic button
The cost of a loan has gone up significantly since early May, affecting both the housing market and investors. But interest rates are still low, and experts say their rise shouldn't cause panic.
Whether you’re buying a home or borrowing for your business, the cost of a loan has gone up significantly since the beginning of May.
The speed of this change has roiled the housing market and rattled investors. Many view it as the beginning of the end for the era of “easy money” from the Federal Reserve. But it’s not so easy to define what the shift means. Is it good or bad for the economy? Could it spoil the housing recovery? Should investors sell bonds?
Many financial experts say the jump in interest rates isn’t something to ignore but also shouldn’t be taken as a cause of knee-jerk panic.
First, the basic facts.
Since May, long-term interest rates have risen as investors have revised their expectations about the Federal Reserve. The Fed still hasn’t raised its short-term benchmark interest rate from its extraordinary near-zero level. But Fed officials have been signaling that they expect to “taper,” eventually, their policies of unusual monetary stimulus.
So the view on Wall Street is that the central bank’s short-term interest rate could rise to about 1 percent by two years from now. The result: The annual yield on a 10-year Treasury note surged from 1.66 percent as of May 1 to 2.65 percent on July 8. In effect, the gap between those numbers means that the US government’s cost of borrowing just went up by about 60 percent.
That’s tough on US taxpayers. And the change in Treasury rates ripples into other financial markets. The cost of home-mortgage loans, issuing top-quality corporate debt, and other forms of borrowing has also jumped.
For the economy, the bad news is that this comes at a time of already weak global growth.