The effects of the widespread US drought could range from higher utility prices and industry costs in the developed world to population displacements and political unrest in less developed regions.
As the historic drought now searing more than 60 percent of the US drags on, the impact could soon be sweeping across the country and beyond.
After the obvious push on food prices, drought experts say the cascading chain of secondary societal effects will range from higher utility prices and industry costs in the developed world to population displacements and potential political unrest in less developed regions.
“The US will see food prices go up, possibly we will see some items disappear from grocery shelves,” says Frank Galgano, chair of the Department of Geography and the Environment at Villanova University in Philadelphia, and an expert on environmental change and security.
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“You will start to see more foreclosures in the farm belt as farmers and ranchers can’t pay their bills,” he says. “Those guys mortgage themselves to the hilt for their seeds and equipment, and if the crop doesn’t come in they are in trouble.”
That loss in turn undermines the tax base of a community which shrinks its capacity to fund every government function from schools to bridge maintenance.
On a global level, Professor Galgano points out that the US is the breadbasket for the world. The United Nations estimates that global food demand has risen 21 percent over the past decade. In the past month alone, the price of corn has risen 34 percent as a result of the US crop losses.
“We supply food to other parts of the world,” he says, noting that this allows many countries in arid areas such as Africa and the Mideast to use more fresh water for other civic needs. “This includes drinking water, so if food becomes more expensive and shorter in supply, water stress in those areas becomes more aggressive.”