Coakley concedes race: five lessons from her campaign
As Martha Coakley concedes the Massachusetts Senate race to Scott Brown, political analysts are already drawing lessons for the midterm elections later this year.
Martha Coakley â the heavy favorite coming out of the Dec. 8 primary â could not hang on to the seat that Edward Kennedy occupied for 47 years, maintain the Democratsâ 60-seat supermajority in Congress, or stem the flow of voters to Mr. Brownâs camp.
Ms. Coakleyâs disappointments are to likely inform both Democratic and Republican strategies for the midterm elections later this year. As Brown said in his acceptance speech: âWhat happened in this election can happen all over America.â
With midterms already approaching, what lessons can be drawn from Coakleyâs campaign?
1. Playing it safe can be risky
âSometimes, the biggest risk you can take in politics is not to take a risk,â Todd Domke, a Massachusetts-based GOP strategist, said about Coakleyâs campaign strategy prior to Tuesdayâs election.
Coakley was running as a Democrat in a state routinely ranked as one of the most Democratic in the US. So perhaps she could be forgiven for thinking that the race was decided in the primary. But voters were angry that she seemed to act that way. She was repeatedly accused of complacency and dogged by persistent rumors that she took a week off from campaigning around Christmas â a charge her camp denies.
2. Voters are angry
â[Votersâ positions] havenât shifted so much as theyâve gotten angry,â says Dan Payne, a Democratic media consultant based in Massachusetts. âThey donât feel theyâre getting their moneyâs worth in Washington.â
Among the hot-button issues: the way healthcare reform is being handled, Americaâs lingering economic troubles, high unemployment rates, and Wall Street bonuses.
âI didnât want to complain anymore, I wanted to do something,â said Jeff Odhner, a Republican from New Hampshire who drove to Massachusetts three nights last week to make hours of phone calls for Brown.
3. Define the opposition
Coakley left a little-known Brown relatively unscathed for much of the early part of the campaign.
âMartha Coakley should have defined Scott Brown before he defined himself,â says Jeffrey Berry, a political scientist at Tufts University in Medford, Mass. Coming out of the primary, Coakley could have âput him on the defensive at a time when didnât have much money to fight back.â
Not doing this put her in a difficult position once his campaign began building momentum. In the final weeks of the race, when polls showed Brown narrowing the gap, she had to scramble to give voters her interpretation of Brown. In part, she was forced to rely on negative advertising.
4. Define the campaign
Not only did Coakley struggle to influence votersâ perceptions of Brown, but she also had trouble defining herself and her campaign for voters.
âShe seemed as though she was running for reelection as attorney general as opposed to running as a new force in Washington,â Mr. Payne says.
Voters didnât get a sense of who Coakley was. âShe was pretty much a generic Democrat,â Professor Berry says. She lacked âcompelling campaign themesâ and the âwarmth and effusiveness that would have played more favorably with the Massachusetts electorate.â
5. Independents can determine the vote
Independents were crucial to Tuesdayâs outcome: A majority of voters â 51 percent â are independents in Massachusetts.
While itâs not yet known how many independents voted, âthey obviously went big for Brown,â Payne says.
It was a group he targeted aggressively, and he continued an independent-oriented message on election night.
âI hope [Washington is] paying close attention, because tonight the independent voice of Massachusetts has spoken,â he said.
In contrast, Coakleyâs campaign seemed to mostly target her Democratic base.
âI donât think Democrats or Republicans have changed their views much,â Payne says. âWhere the differences have happened are with independents who have traditionally voted with Democrats.â
More criticism to come
Even before Tuesdayâs election, Coakley was widely criticized for her campaign â something she alluded to in her concession speech.
âThere will be plenty of Wednesday-morning quarterbacking,â she said. âWe will be honest about the assessment of this race. I fully respect the votersâ choice.â
On the other hand, Brown is credited with running a strong campaign.
âItâs easy for an analyst to pick apart a campaign that failed,â says Berry. But âeven the most partisan Democrat would have to say, âWell done, Scott Brown. Weâll see you in a few years.â â
â˘ Staff writer Christa Case Bryant contributed to this report.
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