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Kim Jong-un: Why there’s growing certainty he'll be next North Korea leader

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“This is the age of military first-policy,” says Ha Tae-keung, president of Open Radio for North Korea, which monitors events inside the North through a wide range of cell phone contacts. “That’s why Kim Jong-un got a military position rather than a party position.” Analysts note, however, that he may get a party position before the conference is over – though there's still no word on whether it's already ended or is still going on.

Kim Jong-un

Mr. Ha believes that well before the conference Kim Jong-un had already assumed a leading role in ruling the country as he consolidates his power behind the armed forces. The instinct for regime and family survival, he says, means he “will never allow any possibility that his regime will be unstable” and “will never allow reform and opening” for fear of “instability.”

The closest Kim Jong-un has come previously to having any kind of rank is as “youth captain,” the informal term given him in lectures to military and party people. Such references have avoided the use not only of his name but of his age, purported to be in his late 20s, some 10 years below that of his father when he was anointed at the age of 38 as successor to his father, the long-ruling Kim Il-sung, at a party congress 30 years ago.

Appointment of Kim Jong-un to the highest military rank came as a surprise to many observers, who had expected him simply to become a member of the party central committee at the conference and possibly a member of the politburo. That kind of appointment would have been enough to confirm speculation that Kim Jong-il, who is reported to be in poor health, had chosen him as his successor, perpetuating a dynasty founded by Kim Il-sung, who rose to power in the North after serving as a Soviet army officer in World War II.

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